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College football betting picks: Arkansas-LSU odds, predictions and best bets for Week 11

College football betting picks: Arkansas-LSU odds, predictions and best bets for Week 11

College football betting picks: Arkansas-LSU odds, predictions and best bets for Week 11

College football betting picks: Arkansas-LSU odds, predictions and best bets for Week 11


College football has reached Week 11 and the SEC Wizard is back to give you betting picks and tips!

Arkansas-LSU, otherwise known as the Battle for the Golden Boot, has been good to coach Bret Bielema in recent years. The Razorbacks won 17-0 in 2014 and 31-14 in ’15, and if Bielema wants to cling to any hope of keeping his job, they’ll need to win again.

College football betting picks, Arkansas-LSU

That means going to Baton Rouge and knocking off a Tigers team that’s already beaten No. 10 Auburn and outgained AP No. 1 Alabama.

The Hogs need a miracle keep bowl hopes alive. But after overcoming a 24-point deficit at Ole Miss and a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit vs. Coastal Carolina the last 2 weeks, miracles may seem plausible for Bielema’s players.

MyBookie line (Nov. 10): LSU -17
MyBookie total (Nov. 10): 56

How Arkansas can win: The Razorbacks came out flat against Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina, then went into aggressive, borderline desperation mode. That’s not going to work against LSU. Arkansas needs to get some scores early and force LSU to pass downfield. With Austin Allen back, the hope for the Hogs is that the offense can be balanced. But the team can’t let Arden Key and LSU’s pass rush decapitate Allen in his first week back, especially with backup Cole Kelley also nursing an injury.

How LSU can win: Batter the Arkansas QB, whomever it is. Allow Matt Canada to do his thing calling plays. LSU has enough athletes on offense to put up a high total in this game without taking too many chances, but it doesn’t want to rely on Danny Etling to come from behind or win a close game. LSU needs to ride Derrius Guice, Russell Gage and D.J. Chark to win 1-on-1 matchups.


ATS: 2-7, -88.5
Over/Under: 6/3
Average line: -3.6
Average betting total: 56.4

Arkansas games have gone over the betting total in 4 of the Razorbacks’ last 5 games. And Arkansas is 2-2 against the spread in its last 4 games after starting 0-5.

Arkansas will be an underdog in 5 of its 6 SEC games once this one kicks off.

F+/- combined ratings: No. 98
Offensive points per possession: No. 43
Defensive points per possession: No. 115
SOS: No. 33

Despite an offensive line that can’t pass protect, and despite the fact that this team lost its No. 1 RB and No. 1 WR, not to mention its starting QB for a long stretch, and lost a ton of pass-catching talent last year … Arkansas ranks in the top half of the SEC on offense. The defense, by contrast, is one of the worst in the Power 5. That epitomizes the Bret Bielema era. He hasn’t been able to get things right on both sides of the ball at the same time.


  • QB Austin Allen (shoulder) is probable, and just in time. Cole Kelley (foot) is questionable against LSU.
  • TE Jack Kraus (head) and TE Cheyenne O’Grady (tailbone) are questionable and probable against LSU, respectively.
  • DB De’Andre Coley (ankle) and DB Britto Tutt (knee) are questionable.
  • The list of Arkansas players out for the season includes C Frank Ragnow, WR Jared Cornelius, DB Ryan Pulley, RB Chase Hayden and WR Koilan Jackson.

Schedule spot

Arkansas engineered back-to-back comeback wins against Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina. The wins almost underscored the team’s struggles this season, especially considering the opposition. The games probably were emotionally taxing, and due to an early bye, this is the seventh consecutive Saturday that the Razorbacks have played.

At 4-5, Arkansas does hold fleeting hope to make a bowl game. Will that be enough motivation here?


Coach Year Overall SEC Accolades
Bret Bielema 5th 29-31 11-26 3 Big Ten championships, Big Ten Coach of the Year in 2006

Spin it any way you want. Bielema isn’t getting paid $4.2 million per year to play less than .500 football, or to win fewer than 1 out of 3 SEC games. He came to Arkansas wanting to play “bully ball” with huge offensive linemen, and it hasn’t worked. The defense also has remained in a state of constant transition.

It’s highly unlikely Bielema returns to Fayetteville in 2018. Many Arkansas fans would rather see him lose this game, maybe badly, to ensure his ousting.

Player TDs INTs YPA Comp. %
Austin Allen 8 4 7.3 56.4%

After missing 4 games due to a shoulder injury, he seems ready to play against LSU. But Cole Kelly has led Arkansas to back-to-back wins, so some think there’s a bit of a quarterback dilemma.

After a fantastic 2016 season, the constant barrage of vicious hits coupled with the loss of several talented pass-catchers made Allen look pedestrian when he did play earlier this year. But he’s a better quarterback than Kelley right now. And Kelley is dealing with his own injury.

Expect Allen to play, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him spark the offense.


ATS: 4-5, -37.5
Over/Under: 4/5
Average line: -9.2
Average betting total: 50.2

LSU has covered in 3 consecutive games after a 5-game spread losing streak. The Tigers have been a favorite of 17 points or more 3 other times this season, and failed to cover in all 3 games — losing outright to Troy.

F+/- combined ratings: No. 33
Offensive points per possession: No. 80
Defensive points per possession: No. 45
SOS: No. 56

LSU ranks just outside the top 25 in F+/-, which I view as the best analytics ranking of college football teams. Yet neither the offense or defense are particularly great statistically. LSU did give up just 23, 24 and 23 points to Auburn (No. 24 in offensive points per possession), Ole Miss (No. 35) and Alabama (No. 6) in the last three outings, respectively.


  • OT K.J. Malone (knee) is questionable entering Week 11, Ed Orgeron volunteered Thursday. He isn’t expected to play against Arkansas.
  • LB Donnie Alexander, TE Caleb Roddy, G Donavaughn Campbell, LB Sci Martin, CB Xavier Lewis, RT Toby Weathersby, CB Kevin Toliver and OLB Corey Thompson all are listed on multiple injury websites as questionable. But it sounds like all may be expected to play.

Schedule spot

LSU put forth a passionate effort in last week’s loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Next week, the Tigers head to Knoxville. Tennessee isn’t great shakes, but in some ways this is a potential let-down spot for the Tigers, who have now lost 3 times.


Coach Year Overall SEC Accolades
Ed Orgeron 2nd 12-5 7-4 None.

He can’t recruit with Nick Saban or Kirby Smart, and he’s not the world’s greatest schematics expert. But in interim roles at USC and LSU, and as head coach this year, he’s been able to get his players to go hard — especially after losses and adversity.

Give Orgeron credit for letting Matt Canada run his offense as well after being a little too controlling early this season.

Player TDs INTs YPA Comp. %
Danny Etling 9 2 8.8 58.0%

LSU yanked Etling near the end of the Alabama game after a 12 for 26 performance (137 yards, 1 INT). But he’s had some good games this year as well. For example, 14 of 17 against BYU, and 9 of 13 against Ole Miss for 200 yards and 2 TDs.

Expect Etling to remain the starter as long as LSU is playing for today rather than for 2018, and that seems to be the case now. He won’t scare Arkansas, but he’s capable of getting the ball to his playmakers against a below-average defense.


Bet: Pass

Score: LSU 34, Arkansas 17

I think the line is good, so I’m not looking to play this game. I made the total 51 when I did my handicapping, but Arkansas’ recent proclivity for hitting overs, Allen’s return and the Razorback’s awful defense scares me away from the under.

The post College football betting picks: Arkansas-LSU odds, predictions and best bets for Week 11 appeared first on SEC Country.

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Georgia Sports News

  • ATHENS — Deangelo Gibbs will not be with the Georgia football team this spring, but it appears he will be for the 2018 season. Gibbs, who is not enrolled in classes this spring because of an unspecified medical issue, has also been dealing with a left shoulder injury. Head coach Kirby Smart sounded optimistic when asked Tuesday about the sophomore’s status going forward. “He’s doing very well with rehab. We anticipate a full return in the fall,” Smart said. Gibbs was contending for a starting spot during the 2017 preseason, ultimately losing out to his cousin J.R. Reed. For most of the season Gibbs ran with the second team at cornerback and nickel back, then late in the season he left the team for what was termed a “medical issue.” Then it emerged in January that Gibbs was not enrolled in classes for the spring semester. If available, Gibbs would be a contender again for a starting spot in a secondary that lost three starters. The only returning starters are top cornerback Deandre Baker and safety J.R. Reed, leaving openings at safety, cornerback and nickel back. (Richard LeCounte is a favorite to start at safety, while the other two spots are a bit more open.) Meanwhile, inside linebacker Natrez Patrick is with the team and is expected to be a full participant in spring practice. Patrick missed Georgia’s playoff run because he entered drug treatment, as part of an issue arising from a probation violation. That took away someone who had started for the better part of the previous two seasons. After returning to the team, Patrick re-enrolled in class at UGA this semester, with his lawyer saying his client hoped to return to the field this season. In another good sign, Patrick was recently named one of the team’s student-athletes of the week, an academic recognition. “He’s done everything we’ve asked,” Smart said on Tuesday. “He’s working hard on and off the field.” Patrick would be a huge lift to a defense that loses the majority of its starters, including all four linebackers who started in the Rose Bowl and national championship. When healthy and eligible, Patrick has been one of the team’s steadiest defensive players. He was second on the team in tackles in 2016, trailing only Roquan Smith. Last year Patrick started seven games, missing four games with a suspension and then both playoff games.       The post Deangelo Gibbs expected to make ‘full return’ to Georgia football team appeared first on DawgNation.
  • ATHENS — Georgia will be without two offensive linemen this spring, as well as five-star tailback recruit Zamir White, the latter of which is not a surprise. White tore his ACL near the end of his high school season. He enrolled early at Georgia and has been rehabbing in Athens since January. “He’s progressing very well,” Smart said of White. “He’ll be able to do some things. But he won’t be full-contact for spring.” Two reserve offensive linemen will also miss spring practice: Justin Shaffer and Sean Fogarty also suffered knee injuries, but are expected back for the season, according to Smart. “They’ll fine. They’ll be back in full go,” Smart said. “But they will not be out there practicing for the spring.” Shaffer, who will be a sophomore this season, played in eight games last year as a reserve. He was expected to compete to be on the two-deep at guard. Fogarty, a walk-on, was the second team center last season.   The post Georgia injury updates: Zamir White, Justin Shaffer and Sean Fogarty appeared first on DawgNation.
  • ATHENS — Georgia has changed roles on its offensive staff, with Jim Chaney and James Coley moving around and Coley gaining the co-offensive coordinator title. Coley, who received interest from Texas A&M this offseason, is now the quarterbacks coach. Chaney, who had been the quarterbacks coach, is now the tight ends coach. Chaney retains the coordinator of offensive coordinator, without the “co” in front of it. Coley does have a background coaching the position: He was the quarterbacks coach for Miami from 2013-15 while he was also the offensive coordinator there. And he began his coaching career coaching quarterbacks at the high school level, at Miami Senior High School from 1997-99, and he was later the QB coach at Florida International in 2007. (He also has experience coaching tight ends, which he did for five years at Florida State.) In fact, this stint at Georgia was the first time Coley served as a receivers coach. Coley received a significant raise this season, up to $850,000 from $450,000. That made him the third-highest paid assistant coach, behind Chaney and defensive coordinator Mel Tucker. Georgia’s salary pool for assistant coaches this year is $6.42 million, an increase from $4.56 million last year. (Read more on that here.)   The post Kirby Smart announces new roles for James Coley and Jim Chaney on Georgia staff appeared first on DawgNation.
  • Here’s a look at the next five offseason key dates on the NFL/Falcons calendar: March 25-28: Annual league meetings in Orlando April 16: Teams with returning head coaches can begin offseason workout programs. April 26-28: NFL draft in Arlington, Texas May 4-7 or 11-14: Teams may hold their one three-day post-draft rookie minicamp Friday through Sunday or Saturday through Monday. May 21-23: Spring league meeting, Atlanta Bow Tie Chronicles: D. Orlando Ledbetter discusses what’s ahead for Matt Ryan Never miss a minute of what’s happening with the Atlanta Falcons. Subscribe to myAJC.com