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College football betting picks: Kentucky-Vanderbilt odds, predictions and best bets for Week 11

College football betting picks: Kentucky-Vanderbilt odds, predictions and best bets for Week 11

College football betting picks: Kentucky-Vanderbilt odds, predictions and best bets for Week 11

College football betting picks: Kentucky-Vanderbilt odds, predictions and best bets for Week 11

kentucky vandy picks-college football-betting-line-week 11-2017

College football has reached Week 10 and the SEC Wizard is back to give you betting picks and tips!

Kentucky-Vanderbilt represents a critical game for these SEC East teams in terms of narrative.

The Wildcats (6-3) won bunches of games early, while outsiders criticized the team as a paper tiger. A loss here, with Georgia and Louisville next, would put UK in danger of finishing the season 1-5.

Vanderbilt (4-5), meanwhile, got a little full of itself after a 3-0 start that included a close win against then-ranked Kansas State in Nashville. The Commodores need this one to stay on track for a bowl game.

College football betting picks, Kentucky-Vanderbilt

If UK wins, the Wildcats still have a shot to finish second in the SEC East this year. Vanderbilt is 0-5 in the SEC and wants to avoid a winless conference record.

MyBookie line (Nov. 10): Vanderbilt -2
MyBookie total (Nov. 10): 52.5

How Kentucky can win: Benny Snell finally got going the last two weeks, rushing for 180 vs. Tennessee and 176 vs. Ole Miss. The Vanderbilt defense has given up a conference-worst 23 rushing TDs this season, along with 5.1 yards per carry. If Snell can produce another monster game, Kentucky has a great chance to win. Vanderbilt has taken very good care of the ball this year — the ‘Dores have committed just 7 turnovers in 9 games — but if UK can force a couple of big mistakes on top of a big game by Snell, the Wildcats will win.

How Vanderbilt can win: Let’s continue that thought from the UK section. Vanderbilt can win by continuing to avoid turnovers. The running game is another good place to go in this type of tossup game. Just like Snell, Ralph Webb — Vandy’s all-time leading rusher — finally got on track with 100-yard games in 2 of the last 3 outings. If the ‘Dores get a semblance of balance on offense, can end Snell’s mini-streak and don’t turn over the ball, Derek Mason may celebrate his first SEC win of the season.


ATS: 2-7, -51
Over/Under: 4/6
Average line: -5.8
Average betting total: 53.2

Kentucky has gone from a quiet under-performer that came within a play of a 6-0 start to a team losing games against the spread and on the scoreboard. UK has been favored in 3 of 6 SEC games. So it’s clear how little respect oddsmakers are now giving the Wildcats compared to earlier this year.

F+/- combined ratings: No. 78
Offensive points per possession: No. 74
Defensive points per possession: No. 76
SOS: No. 49

Kentucky has been very bland on both sides of the ball all season. It’s hard to determine a strong identity. These numbers back that assertion. With 130 FBS teams, No. 65 is average. So UK is slightly worse than average on offense, defense and overall.


  • P Matt Panton (suspension) won’t play against Kentucky. Panton got arrested for public intoxication.
  • RB A.J. Rose (undisclosed) is questionable against Vanderbilt.
  • WR Dorian Baker and T Cole Mosier suffered season-ending injuries before Week 1. But Kentucky is surprisingly healthy for an SEC team in mid-November.

Schedule Spot

The Wildcats are 1-2 since an Oct. 14 bye, including a fortunate 29-26 home win against Tennessee. UK clinched bowl eligibility in that game. But with Georgia and a still-outstanding Lamar Jackson (Louisville) left on the schedule, Kentucky’s best shot at a seventh win is this Saturday.


Coach Year Overall SEC Accolades
Mark Stoops 5th 25-33 11-27 None.

Stoops is recruiting as well as Kentucky has in decades, maybe ever. His classes typically are borderline top 25. That hasn’t translated into wild success, even in a historically bad SEC East. But UK seems headed for back-to-back 7-6 seasons, give or take one game.

That’s good enough at Kentucky. The question now becomes whether this program has peaked, and if Stoops can sustain this level.

Player TDs INTs YPA Comp. %
Stephen Johnson 10 4 7.2 61.7%

I’d equate Johnson to a poor man’s Jalen Hurts, though Johnson is actually better at throwing the deep ball.

Johnson can beat you with his legs on occasion, and he’s done a pretty nice job of protecting the football. He won’t blow you away with any measurables, but he’s just a good, efficient ballplayer.


ATS: 3-5-1, -52
Over/Under: 5/4
Average line: -0.4
Average betting total: 48.8

Vanderbilt ended a 4-game spread losing streak by pushing against South Carolina in Week 9, then won by 14 as a 13-point favorite against Western Kentucky last week. So, to recap: In the last 7 weeks, Vanderbilt has pushed once and covered the spread by 1 point once. That’s not  a confidence-inspiring track record for betters looking to back the ‘Dores here.

F+/- combined ratings: No. 93
Offensive points per possession: No. 72
Defensive points per possession: No. 101
SOS: No. 65

Vanderbilt’s defense, the foundation of every good Commodores team in recent years, really misses Zach Cunningham and others. Only Missouri, Arkansas and Ole Miss rank lower among SEC defenses.


  • RB Khari Blasingame (undisclosed) is questionable Saturday vs. Kentucky.
  • FB Bailey McElwain (foot) is out indefinitely.
  • Vanderbilt is even healthier than Kentucky. These are probably the two healthiest teams in the SEC.

Schedule Spot

Vanderbilt snapped a five-game losing streak last weekend, beating Western Kentucky 31-17. But the Commodores remain winless in SEC play. Missouri and Tennessee remain on the schedule, so grabbing a fifth victory here would be good for the team’s bowl hopes.


Coach Year Overall SEC Accolades
Derek Mason 4th 17-29 5-24 None.

Mason is an excellent defensive coordinator and a pretty average head coach. That said, getting Vanderbilt to back-to-back bowl appearances would be a tremendous accomplishment. Mason needs to win at least 1 of 3 to avoid a 4-8 season, and Kentucky is as beatable as any team in the SEC right now.

Player TDs INTs YPA Comp. %
Kyle Shurmur 20 3 7.4 55.9%

Shurmur’s TD-INT ratio is absolutely tremendous at nearly 3-1, especially considering the offensive line he plays behind. He hasn’t been the most accurate quarterback in the SEC, but he’s a very bright spot within a fairly bleak roster this season.

He’s good enough to add 2 or 3 more passing TDs against Kentucky.


Bet: Pass

Score: Vanderbilt 28, Kentucky 27

Flip a coin in this one. Vanderbilt deserves to be a short favorite because of how poorly Kentucky has fared against the spread this year and because Kyle Shurmur has thrown for so many touchdowns. But in my opinion, putting money on this game is pure gambling, not finding and exploiting some sort of edge.

Use your money elsewhere this weekend.

The post College football betting picks: Kentucky-Vanderbilt odds, predictions and best bets for Week 11 appeared first on SEC Country.

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Georgia Sports News

  • ATHENS — Deangelo Gibbs will not be with the Georgia football team this spring, but it appears he will be for the 2018 season. Gibbs, who is not enrolled in classes this spring because of an unspecified medical issue, has also been dealing with a left shoulder injury. Head coach Kirby Smart sounded optimistic when asked Tuesday about the sophomore’s status going forward. “He’s doing very well with rehab. We anticipate a full return in the fall,” Smart said. Gibbs was contending for a starting spot during the 2017 preseason, ultimately losing out to his cousin J.R. Reed. For most of the season Gibbs ran with the second team at cornerback and nickel back, then late in the season he left the team for what was termed a “medical issue.” Then it emerged in January that Gibbs was not enrolled in classes for the spring semester. If available, Gibbs would be a contender again for a starting spot in a secondary that lost three starters. The only returning starters are top cornerback Deandre Baker and safety J.R. Reed, leaving openings at safety, cornerback and nickel back. (Richard LeCounte is a favorite to start at safety, while the other two spots are a bit more open.) Meanwhile, inside linebacker Natrez Patrick is with the team and is expected to be a full participant in spring practice. Patrick missed Georgia’s playoff run because he entered drug treatment, as part of an issue arising from a probation violation. That took away someone who had started for the better part of the previous two seasons. After returning to the team, Patrick re-enrolled in class at UGA this semester, with his lawyer saying his client hoped to return to the field this season. In another good sign, Patrick was recently named one of the team’s student-athletes of the week, an academic recognition. “He’s done everything we’ve asked,” Smart said on Tuesday. “He’s working hard on and off the field.” Patrick would be a huge lift to a defense that loses the majority of its starters, including all four linebackers who started in the Rose Bowl and national championship. When healthy and eligible, Patrick has been one of the team’s steadiest defensive players. He was second on the team in tackles in 2016, trailing only Roquan Smith. Last year Patrick started seven games, missing four games with a suspension and then both playoff games.       The post Deangelo Gibbs expected to make ‘full return’ to Georgia football team appeared first on DawgNation.
  • ATHENS — Georgia will be without two offensive linemen this spring, as well as five-star tailback recruit Zamir White, the latter of which is not a surprise. White tore his ACL near the end of his high school season. He enrolled early at Georgia and has been rehabbing in Athens since January. “He’s progressing very well,” Smart said of White. “He’ll be able to do some things. But he won’t be full-contact for spring.” Two reserve offensive linemen will also miss spring practice: Justin Shaffer and Sean Fogarty also suffered knee injuries, but are expected back for the season, according to Smart. “They’ll fine. They’ll be back in full go,” Smart said. “But they will not be out there practicing for the spring.” Shaffer, who will be a sophomore this season, played in eight games last year as a reserve. He was expected to compete to be on the two-deep at guard. Fogarty, a walk-on, was the second team center last season.   The post Georgia injury updates: Zamir White, Justin Shaffer and Sean Fogarty appeared first on DawgNation.
  • ATHENS — Georgia has changed roles on its offensive staff, with Jim Chaney and James Coley moving around and Coley gaining the co-offensive coordinator title. Coley, who received interest from Texas A&M this offseason, is now the quarterbacks coach. Chaney, who had been the quarterbacks coach, is now the tight ends coach. Chaney retains the coordinator of offensive coordinator, without the “co” in front of it. Coley does have a background coaching the position: He was the quarterbacks coach for Miami from 2013-15 while he was also the offensive coordinator there. And he began his coaching career coaching quarterbacks at the high school level, at Miami Senior High School from 1997-99, and he was later the QB coach at Florida International in 2007. (He also has experience coaching tight ends, which he did for five years at Florida State.) In fact, this stint at Georgia was the first time Coley served as a receivers coach. Coley received a significant raise this season, up to $850,000 from $450,000. That made him the third-highest paid assistant coach, behind Chaney and defensive coordinator Mel Tucker. Georgia’s salary pool for assistant coaches this year is $6.42 million, an increase from $4.56 million last year. (Read more on that here.)   The post Kirby Smart announces new roles for James Coley and Jim Chaney on Georgia staff appeared first on DawgNation.
  • Here’s a look at the next five offseason key dates on the NFL/Falcons calendar: March 25-28: Annual league meetings in Orlando April 16: Teams with returning head coaches can begin offseason workout programs. April 26-28: NFL draft in Arlington, Texas May 4-7 or 11-14: Teams may hold their one three-day post-draft rookie minicamp Friday through Sunday or Saturday through Monday. May 21-23: Spring league meeting, Atlanta Bow Tie Chronicles: D. Orlando Ledbetter discusses what’s ahead for Matt Ryan Never miss a minute of what’s happening with the Atlanta Falcons. Subscribe to myAJC.com